By Lucio Muñoz – Independent Qualitative Comparative Researcher / Consultant, Vancouver, BC, Canada
The coming of extreme democratic outcomes took the whole democratic world by surprise in June 2016 with the BREXIT win in the UK endorsing the move to leave the European Union; and the USEXIT results in the USA in November 2016 electing Donald Trump as President, both events leading to after the fact wide spread true majority discontent and protest. Yet still today September 2017, not much is known about what is the structure of extreme democratic outcomes and about when they should be expected to take place. We know now for sure that normal democratic modeling and polling cannot foresee the coming of extreme democratic outcomes; and therefore they are not helpful to understanding how to avoid them or how to deal with them once they happen. Hence, new ideas are needed to understand the world and the working of extreme democratic outcomes.
Among the goals of this paper is to provide answers, both analytically and graphically, to the following two questions: a) under which complacency conditions we should always expect the true majority to win a democratic contest and see normal democratic outcomes(NDO)?; and b) under which complacency conditions we should expect the true minority to win a democratic contest leading to surprising extreme democratic outcomes(EDO)?.